Gold prices may rebound on demand for an alternative to currencies

A recent Bloomberg survey says that gold prices may rebound on demand for an alternative to currencies. Gjepc.org spoke to some experts to find out what they feel about this and what will the situation be in the months to come.Bhargav Vaidya, industry expert and bullion consultant, says, "I can't say this so directly but indirectly, yes, there are possibilities that gold could react this way. But it will happen with countries that don't have confidence in their currency. Though it's for sure, it will not happen in a huge way and if there's a short in Euro, there will be a long in gold". He adds that though no one knows how the last year's depreciation could be termed, it's for sure that the dollar terms will not be breached. His thoughts are seconded by Debjyoti Chatterjee, an associate vice president with MAPE ADMISI Research in Mumbai. He says, "The current bull on gold prices is because of safe haven buying and in this recessional market, people are not sure of their currency. Thus, as an alternative investment, they are pouring money on futures". He is of the opinion that because of a decline in dollar, gold is gaining heavily and this volatility in the market was not evident before 2005. He adds, "There is always 50-60 dollar volatility in trading but that's not the case anymore. It's a traders market now and they decide on the prices. Whatever happens, there will be no breach in the gold prices. Currently, gold is around $900 an ounce which is pretty much close to $1000 an ounce and, for 2009, I would say that gold at $1200 an ounce is not at all superficial but very much practical". Adding further to this situation, Chatterjee says that even higher crude oil prices will support gold prices. "In the second quarter rally, by April, there will again be volatility in the market and the bullion market will be beneficial for gold. The physical gold demand has reduced by 2/3rd because of higher prices and compared to last year, the gold import in India has been merely 300-350 tonnes". He feels that the prices are not going to heal as India is just a "price taker and not maker". Since there is a mismatch in the demand and supply in physical gold, even the central bank is holding on to its reserves. "This is going to be very much supportive for gold prices which are going to be just higher and higher", concludes Chatterjee.